In January I wrote an article pointing out that long-term equity valuations were unparalleled, and that if history repeats itself, we can expect the next ten years to return approximately zero. My reasoning then was based on valuations. More recently, two other important reasons to expect a substantial fall in markets, and perhaps worse, have slotted into place. One is the long-term impact of America’s folly in instigating an unnecessary war in Iran. The second is a clea

There are gaps in the provision of advice The Local Government Pension Scheme (Pooling, Management and Investment of Funds) Regulations 2026 are due to come into force on 1 st April 2026, even though the Pension Schemes bill behind it has not yet started going through the report stage. These regulations introduce important changes to the LGPS Scheme, albeit in far too rushed a manner. One of them is the requirement for partner funds to take advice from their pool, and at t

I’ve just spent three weeks in Japan. It was principally for personal reasons, but Japan is changing rapidly right now and I find it useful professionally to take the temperature regularly. As last year, I share my thoughts in case readers do too. For investors it is perhaps even more important now. The chance of an abrupt change in political direction under Sanae Takaichi if she wins the general election on February 8 th is high. And the need to diversify away from U.S.

U.S. equity index valuations have reached an all-time high Any student of financial history with a long-term investment horizon would not hesitate to underweight, or even zero weight, the U.S. stock market index. History says that when valuations are as high as they are today, the equity risk premium disappears and returns over the medium term will be low or negative. The classic exposition uses the ultra-conservative Shiller CAPE ratios – the price today divided by ten-year

This is Linchpin’s fourteenth annual update, in which we monitor a range of inflation indicators. The aim is to provide investors with a framework for assessing long-term inflation. Last year, we said that monetary debasement in the longer term remains the major risk. 12 months later we can no longer see how central banks or the bond vigilantes might wrest control back from governments. We therefore believe higher and persistent inflation is inevitable. Investors need to

MHCLG recently released detailed March 2025 data (i.e., SF3 data) for the English and Welsh Local Government Pension Scheme. As well as data on contributions, expenses, and the member profile for each fund, it is also possible to calculate investment performance from the data both in aggregate and by fund. Pooling is not (yet) saving funds money At a Scheme level, it is not surprising that overall expenditure has risen by about 9% over the past twelve months. The bulk of ex