U.S. equity index valuations have reached an all-time high Any student of financial history with a long-term investment horizon would not hesitate to underweight, or even zero weight, the U.S. stock market index.  History says that when valuations are as high as they are today, the equity risk premium disappears and returns over the medium term will be low or negative. The classic exposition uses the ultra-conservative Shiller CAPE ratios – the price today divided by ten-year

This is Linchpin’s fourteenth annual update, in which we monitor a range of inflation indicators.  The aim is to provide investors with a framework for assessing long-term inflation.  Last year, we said that monetary debasement in the longer term remains the major risk.  12 months later we can no longer see how central banks or the bond vigilantes might wrest control back from governments.  We therefore believe higher and persistent inflation is inevitable.  Investors need to

MHCLG recently released detailed March 2025 data (i.e., SF3 data) for the English and Welsh Local Government Pension Scheme.  As well as data on contributions, expenses, and the member profile for each fund, it is also possible to calculate investment performance from the data both in aggregate and by fund. Pooling is not (yet) saving funds money At a Scheme level, it is not surprising that overall expenditure has risen by about 9% over the past twelve months.  The bulk of ex

2025 funding levels have risen Actuarial advisers are now giving their first estimates of 2025 funding levels to LGPS funds in England...

UPCOMING EVENTS PAST EVENTS 2 December  - William and Arthur attended the SPS Nordic Institutional Investors Summit  in Helsinki. 4 November  - William attended the Room 151 Investment Forum  in London. 22 October  - William attended the SPS Local Authority Pension Funds Conference . 11 September  - William was a panellist at the LGC Investment Summit  on the session on post-valuation strategies. 30 June  - William attended the LAPSIF Conference in Hertfordshire . 23 June  -

A couple of months ago, I wrote an article about markets suggesting that in the short-term equity bulls were more likely to be right than...