I’ve just spent three weeks in Japan.  It was principally for personal reasons, but Japan is changing rapidly right now and I find it useful professionally to take the temperature regularly.  As last year, I share my thoughts in case readers do too. For investors it is perhaps even more important now.  The chance of an abrupt change in political direction under Sanae Takaichi if she wins the general election on February 8 th  is high.  And the need to diversify away from U.S.

U.S. equity index valuations have reached an all-time high Any student of financial history with a long-term investment horizon would not hesitate to underweight, or even zero weight, the U.S. stock market index.  History says that when valuations are as high as they are today, the equity risk premium disappears and returns over the medium term will be low or negative. The classic exposition uses the ultra-conservative Shiller CAPE ratios – the price today divided by ten-year

This is Linchpin’s fourteenth annual update, in which we monitor a range of inflation indicators.  The aim is to provide investors with a framework for assessing long-term inflation.  Last year, we said that monetary debasement in the longer term remains the major risk.  12 months later we can no longer see how central banks or the bond vigilantes might wrest control back from governments.  We therefore believe higher and persistent inflation is inevitable.  Investors need to

UPCOMING EVENTS 2-3 February 2026 - William will be attending the LAPSIF Strategic Investment Forum on Day 2. 10 February 2026 - William will be participating in the Aviva Investors "Critical Conversations" Roundtable in London. 25 February 2026 - William will be attending the Investment Discussion Dinner held by Crispin Derby Limited and supported by KKR. 19-20 March 2026 - William will be speaking at the LGC Investment Seminar at Carden Park. 5-6 May 2026 - William w

MHCLG recently released detailed March 2025 data (i.e., SF3 data) for the English and Welsh Local Government Pension Scheme.  As well as data on contributions, expenses, and the member profile for each fund, it is also possible to calculate investment performance from the data both in aggregate and by fund. Pooling is not (yet) saving funds money At a Scheme level, it is not surprising that overall expenditure has risen by about 9% over the past twelve months.  The bulk of ex

2025 funding levels have risen Actuarial advisers are now giving their first estimates of 2025 funding levels to LGPS funds in England...